Every week I curate a set of “Top Notes” of media coverage on the 2020 presidential elections. Read it to keep up to date on latest developments.
– Sarah Lyons, Director of Communications, Independent Voting

 

February 15 – February 27, 2019

Eyes on 2020 – (Letter to Editor/ Randy Fricke, CO) The national office of Independent Voters (Independentvoting.org) and a national committee of independent voters has just launched a national campaign called “Eyes On 2020” — a national campaign to open all of the closed Democratic and Republican Party primary elections across America to nonpartisan open primary elections. As part of this national campaign, Western Colorado Independent Voters is holding a public town hall meeting at 7 p.m. Feb. 21, at the Glenwood Springs Library in downtown Glenwood Springs to discuss nonpartisan options such as “top two” and “top four” primary elections, as well as ranked-choice voting to be established for the state of Colorado….Our local Democrats and Republicans are good people, but they need to know that their parties can’t own the entire election system. All voters should own our election process and not the Democratic and Republican parties. Also, taxpayers need to stop paying for their primary elections. Why should citizens continue to subsidize these political parties? This should be unconstitutional. (Post Independent / Citizen Telegram, 2/18/19)

Schultz

“The stakes are too high to cross our fingers and hope the Democratic Party nominates a moderate who can win over enough independents and disaffected Republicans, and even fellow Democrats, to defeat Trump next year,” Schultz wrote. “That any opponent can oust Trump, no matter how far to the radical left they are, is a fallacy.” He added: “Those so concerned about a centrist independent being a spoiler should perhaps ask another question: Will the eventual Democratic nominee be the party’s own version of a spoiler?” (Fox News, 1/20/19)

Schultz’s wealth and third-party posturing has led to frequent comparisons to an earlier plutocrat who ran two independent candidacies for president, and won more than 18 percent of the vote in 1992: H. Ross Perot….Perot was without any question a phenomenon who made an indelible impression at the time. The same cannot be said for Schultz. Though he’s been making the media rounds and has a new book on the New York Times best-seller list, it’s still unclear what he stands for other than dislike for Trump and disdain for what he considers a socialist trend among Democrats. (New York Magazine, 2/21/19)

“If you imagine a period in time in 2020 where Howard Schultz is ahead in a three-way race, with multiple paths to 270 electoral votes, and all the commentariat saying, ‘How did you know that would happen?,’ well, the indication was probably at the beginning with the hysterical, overwrought, panicked reaction by vested interests within the political duopoly and in the media class,” Schmidt says. “There’s an enormous constituency in this country that’s just completely unrepresented. There has never been a larger population of moderate voters who generally agree on some of the country’s biggest problems.” (Vanity Fair,1/31/19) )

Naysayers

• Warren Buffet – Berkshire Hathaway Chairman and CEO Warren Buffett told CNBC on Monday it would be a “mistake” if former StarbucksCEO Howard Schultz ran for president as an independent against Donald Trump. Buffett weighed in on Schultz’s presidential aspirations after saying he would support Mike Bloomberg if the former New York mayor chose to run in 2020. “I think generally [that] third-party candidates, they’re going to hurt one side or the other, and they’re more likely to hurt the side that they actually favor, because they’re closer to that view and so they pull more people away that would otherwise go with the second-best with that view,” Buffett said. “So I hope no third-party candidate runs,” he added. “I think third-party candidates can thwart, actually, the will of the people.” (CNBC, 2/25/19)
• Robert Reich – the former CEO of Starbucks whose most notable achievement to date has been the Mocha Frappucinno…Schultz, like Trump, it’s all about money and media. Schultz is running because he thinks it will be a hoot – the capstone to his coffee career, the apex of his espresso. But like many other billionaires of America’s New Gilded Age, Schultz doesn’t seem to give a damn about what his political escapades do to America. (Salon, 1/24/19)
• Bernie Sanders – On today’s “CBS This Morning,” newly declared presidential candidate Bernie Sanders wasted no time dismissing one of his potential competitors: former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz, who recently announced he’s considering a run for president. At the 3:31 mark in the segment above, when “CBS This Morning” co-host John Dickerson brings up Schultz, Sanders immediately shifts into cranky-old-man mode as he paints Schultz as a know-nothing rich dude whose main qualification is that he can afford a lot of advertising: Why are you quoting Howard Schultz? Because he’s a billionaire. There are a lot of people I know personally who work hard for a living, who make forty, fifty thousand dollars a year, who know a lot more about politics than, with all due respect, does Mr. Schultz. But because we have a corrupt political system, anybody who’s a billionaire, who can throw a lot of TV ads on television, suddenly becomes very, very credible. (Ad Age, 2/19/19)
• Eric Swalwell – “Count me in the small group of potential 2020 contenders who could not care less as to whether Howard Schultz runs,” says Eric Swalwell,a California Democratic congressman who spoke as he was traveling to New Hampshire Thursday morning. “I’m not scared one bit by one independent billionaire. We’re going to win based on our candidates and our ideas. And we’re going to have a Democratic president in 2021.” (Vanity Fair, 1/31/19)

Sanders –And while rising stars like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ayanna Pressley have siphoned some of his authority over the party’s progressive wing, Mr. Sanders still claims to have spawned a “political revolution” that, true revolution or not, has ignited a generation of young, socialist-leaning voters and reshaped the Democratic Party.He is also partly responsible for the party’s decision last year to overhaul its presidential nomination process, including sharply reducing the influence of superdelegates and increasing the transparency around debates — factors he felt greatly favored Hillary Clinton in 2016…Mr. Sanders is the longest-serving independent in congressional history, a point of pride for him but one of consternation and annoyance for some Democrats who are quick to suggest he does not have the party’s interests at heart. Some Democrats blame him for Mrs. Clinton’s loss in 2016, saying his anti-establishment rhetoric during his campaign inflamed divisions in the party that proved insurmountable. (NYT, 2/19/19)

Weld – Former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld said his bid to win the Republican presidential nomination over President Donald Trump will get a boost from independent voters who can cast GOP primary ballots in 20 states. “That is an opening,” he said of the independent voters in a Bloomberg Television interview. “Beyond that, you have to make a case for yourself, and I am in this to win.” Asked if he’s received encouragement from other Republicans, Weld said, “I am not asking people to endorse or get behind me until I have shown I have some traction.” He said he’s getting “a lot” of support by email and that when people speak in favor of his candidacy, they use words like “historic.” (Bloomberg, 2/19/19)

Harris – Kamala Harris touted Medicare for all, an assault weapons ban, and the Green New Deal on her first visit to New Hampshire as a presidential candidate Monday. But the message she emphasized the most to Granite State voters was a simpler one: I’ll be back. “I just want to get this out of the way,” the freshman senator from California said to open up her packed town hall Monday evening in Portsmouth’s South Church. “I intend to compete in New Hampshire. I intend to spend time here. I intend to shake every hand that I possibly can.” (Boston Globe, 2/18/19)

• Kamala Harris, D-Calif., on Monday distanced herself from democratic socialism when pressed on whether she’ll be able to compete in states like New Hampshire in the Democratic Party’s 2020 presidential primary. Harris was asked about her position on the political ideology during her maiden trip to New Hampshire as a candidate, a state where Sen. Bernie Sanders beat former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016 by more than 20 percentage points. “Well, the people of New Hampshire will tell me what’s required to compete in New Hampshire, but I will tell you I am not a democratic socialist,” Harris told reporters during a campaign stop. (Washington Examiner, 2/18/19)

Booker – Senator Cory Booker continued his swing through New Hampshire Sunday, with three different campaign stops as he focused on a message of unity for the American people, regardless of party. “I’m running for president not just to win an office, but there is a larger campaign for our country. Our nation is a moral moment. We are at a crossroad that’s going to define who we are. We all have to accept the responsibilities that we are framers again. That we have to re-establish the ideals for this country in this generation,” he said. Booker also said the 2020 presidential primary race should not be about President Donald Trump or the democrats, but about the cause of the country, saying you can’t fight a fire with more fire. “People tell me if you’re gonna beat Trump, you gotta bring it,” Booker said. “Well, I believe in bringing it, but not bringing more of what Trump is bringing.”…  he was not the only candidate in the Granite State, which will hold the first primary next year.  New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand wrapped up her three-day visit, California Senator Kamala Harris is campaigning there until Monday, and Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar is heading to Manchester on Monday. (NECN, 2/17/19)

Buttigieg –  He’s got a resume that appears to have been forged in Democratic headquarters’ central casting department: Harvard grad. Rhodes scholar. Millennial. Afghanistan war veteran. Married his boyfriend three years ago. Elected twice in a deep-red state. For the most part, he’s been spending his time in Iowa and New Hampshire. But he came to San Francisco to court donors and make a lunchtime appearance at Postmates, a South of Market on-demand delivery company, where he impressed many of his fellow Millennials by answering questions about artificial intelligence and riffing on the privacy policy in Estonia. (SF Chronicle, 2/25/19 )

Warren – The two senators—Sanders from Vermont, Warren from neighboring Massachusetts—are among the left’s most prominent figures, having built impressive national profiles with sharp criticism of America’s economic system. These and other unabashedly liberal positions have turned them into progressive heroes. But their similarities also mean they’re likely to rely on the same base of voters to lift them to the Democratic nomination—and could find themselves slugging it out sooner rather than later. (Vanity Fair, 2/22/19)

• Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren distanced herself from the Sanders wing of the Democratic Party by saying she was not a socialist in an interview with BuzzFeed News published Thursday. The answer arose after Warren was asked to explain the difference between her and Vermont Independent Sen. Bernie Sanders, a lingering question as Democrats are already discussing potential challengers to President Donald Trump in 2020. Yet Warren seems to have her line when asked to differentiate herself from Sanders. “He’s a socialist,” Warren said, “and I believe in markets.” (The Daily Caller)

Hickenlooper –  Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper has hired an Iowa organizer as he considers a 2020 Democratic presidential bid. Hickenlooper’s Leadership PAC hired Ferguson Yacyshyn as an adviser. The onetime Denver mayor, who’s considered a centrist politician, said in mid-February that he will not decide for several more weeks whether to join the crowded 2020 contest. CBS (2/21/19)

O’Rourke – O’Rourke is now on the precipice of running for president with “losing Senate candidate” as the most impressive line on his résumé. It was how he chose to run that campaign last year that sets him apart from his potential Democratic rivals…In political terms, it amounted to a massive bet on a strategy of mobilizing infrequent voters instead of trying to win over dependable ones. …If he stuck to that plan, O’Rourke would never even have to hire a pollster, because he did not really care about moving opinions. There would be no triangulating against his party’s base, no judicious courtship of a relatively small slice of potential party-switchers with views to the right of his. (Politico, 2/22/19)

Klobuch – (Oped, Klobuch as centrist alternative to Schultz) Former Starbucks chief executive Howard Schultz appears to believe he could perform well in a presidential race with voters turned off by President Donald Trump and those fearful that the Democratic Party has moved too far left. But the independent candidate recently told The Washington Post he would reconsider his quest if a more moderate Democrat, like former vice president Joe Biden or former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg, got the party’s nomination. “I would reassess the situation if the numbers change as a result of a centrist Democrat winning the nomination,” he said regarding internal polling suggesting he would be competitive in a three-way race against President Trump and a liberal Democratic candidate. Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., might be able to change those numbers. Klobuchar is running for president in 2020, joining a crowded and diverse field of Democratic candidates vying for the nomination. The billionaire is right that there are voters who are looking for a third way; he just might not be the person to lead that path. But the pragmatic Klobuchar could. Her stances appear to be rooted in acknowledging a Democratic electorate interested in big ideas but recognizing some proposals might be too radical to win over independents who backed Trump in 2016. (Mesabi Daily News, 2/19/19)

McAuliffe – Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe said Sunday he’s inching closer to making a decision on whether or not to run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020. McAuliffe had previously set a self-imposed deadline of March 31 for announcing his intentions. “I have made hundreds and hundreds of calls across the country, talked to potential staff and, listen, we’re close to making a decision,” McAuliffe said Sunday on “Face the Nation.” Asked whether he was waiting for former Vice President Joe Biden to make his own decision on 2020, McAuliffe said he isn’t, but said he “wants to see where the field is.” McAuliffe is a longtime ally of the Clinton family and served as Virginia’s governor from 2014 to 2018.

• Terry McAuliffe -“I do think we need in this race a progressive governor who was very jobs-oriented, very successful in economic development. They’re not mutually exclusive,” said McAuliffe. “A governor is CEO. We build roads, we fix roads. We do need governors in this race because, you know, we don’t just get to talk all day, we’ve got to to deliver every single day.” (Face the Nation, 2/17/19)

Memoirs – Virtually every candidate entering the massive 2020 presidential field has published a memoir, arguing why he or she is the best person for the job (or, at least, the best person to defeat Donald Trump). But let’s be honest: Some of these books can be a real slog, filled with empty promises, progressive platitudes, and plain bad writing. So we read 10 of them for you — separating the great from the terrible, the middling from the slightly less middling. Here are our takes on the books, ranked from best to worst. (Entertainment, 2/22/19)

# # #

​Founder and Coordinator for Independent Pennsylvanians penned this guest oped for the Eyes on 2020 campaign that was published in the The Times-Tribune.

Exclusionary pattern
Friday, February 15, 2019

 

“Democrats and Republicans undemocratically control the nation’s election process. They also want to control how we think about potential candidates outside of their influence. Look at the hysterical reaction to former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz thinking about running for president as an independent. Our political system is a mess. Ordinary people suffer, with elected officials who are tone deaf to the needs and concerns of the people. Voters should decide who runs and gets elected. Currently, we don’t.

Too many states, including Pennsylvania, still have closed primaries. Independents, the fastest-growing voting group, are locked out in closed primary states, even though all voters pay for the primaries. Closed primaries are a spoiler to an open and healthier election system. Parties and the politicians love to decide things before they get to the voters. Now they say that Schultz’s candidacy could “spoil” it for someone else. The Democratic and Republican parties are spoilers to an open and healthy democracy.

A recent editorial by the Pittsburgh Post Gazette stated: “The ‘spoiler’ argument, which is as old as political entitlement and opportunism, is really undemocratic and unAmerican. It is undemocratic because, in a democracy, every candidate “spoils” it for every other candidate running. That’s the idea. It is un-american because no one is entitled to office, any office, or to any block of voters. And no one is entitled to limit another citizen’s choices.”

It’s time to address the real spoilers of democracy. Open the primaries in all states for the 2020 election. Let Schultz, and other candidates not coronated by the party establishment, bring their case to us. Power to the people, not the spoiled brat parties.

JENNIFER BULLOCK COORDINATOR, INDEPENDENT PENNSYLVANIANS, PHILADELPHIA

Every week I curate a set of “Top Notes” of media coverage on the 2020 presidential elections. Read it to keep up to date on latest developments.
– Sarah Lyons, Director of Communications, Independent Voting

 

February 2 – February 16, 2019

Schultz – A handful of people from an independent voters group gathered outside the Free Library before Schultz’s remarks to support his right to run. (WHYY, 2/13/19)

• Spoiler Issue
  POPPY HARLOW, CNN: If you run, Mr. Schultz, and if you look at the polls in the fall of 2020 and it looks like you are going to be a spoiler, like you will get President Trump reelected, will you drop out of the race?
  HOWARD SCHULTZ, CNN: Okay, a very important question, so let’s clarify this right now, right here, on national TV, on CNN.  First off, the issue of being a spoiler, how can you spoil a system that is already broken? It’s just not working? So it’s not — it’s not the right word.  Now, what I’ve said publicly and I want to repeat, if the math doesn’t tally up when I get through the next three or four months and I take my message out to the American people and I continue to talk this way about how concerned I am about the country and how much I think we can do so much better under a different process, if the numbers don’t add up, I will not run for president, because I will not do anything, whatsoever, to re-elect Donald Trump.
• Spoiler Alert: Shultz, the Democrats and the Independents (by Jackie Salit, IVN, 2/13/19)
• Brief Recap of Some Spoiler Controversies (Independent Voting, 2/12/19))

Pro Schultz

• Letter to Editor – Democrats are heckling Howard Schultz for his possible presidential run as an independent candidate. As the two-time CEO of Starbucks, Schultz is socially progressive but financially conservative and smart enough to know that Bernie Sanders (I) was not treated fairly in the Democrat primary…So what scares the groomed-for-years-to-be-professional politicians of both parties are businessmen who have undermined the professional politicians’ own profession by skirting their waiting line and becoming president. (Santa Rosa Press Gazette, 2/14/19)
• Richard Branson – In an interview with Yahoo Finance at a launch event for his new adults-only cruise line Virgin Voyages, Branson voiced his support for fellow billionaires Howard Schultz, former Starbucks CEO, and Michael Bloomberg, former mayor of New York City, and their potential 2020 campaigns. “There are some extraordinarily good business people. Donald Trump was not one of those people, he just happens to be in the White House,” Branson said. “But people like Howard Schultz or Mike Bloomberg, they are extraordinarily good business people and therefore I think they would be extraordinarily good in the White House running a country.” (Yahoo, 2/14/19)

Con

• Ronald Brownstein – After this week’s CNN town hall, it’s more and more clear that any money Howard Schultz might spend on an independent presidential bid would function as an in-kind campaign contribution to Donald Trump. Schultz offered few policy specifics during the hour-long session Tuesday night and repeatedly retreated to platitudes when pressed to clarify his position on core issues, including taxes and health care. But to the extent that Schultz did explain his views, they stamped him as a moderate Democrat, tilting toward the party’s center on economics while firmly identifying with its solidifying liberal lean on social and racial issues. (CNN, 2/14/19)

Warren – Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren made her bid for the presidency official on Saturday in this working-class city, grounding her 2020 campaign in a populist call to fight economic inequality and build “an America that works for everyone.” Warren enters the race as one of the party’s most recognizable figures. She has spent the past decade in the national spotlight, first emerging as a consumer activist during the financial crisis. She later led the congressional panel that oversaw the 2008 financial industry bailout. After Republicans blocked her from running the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, an agency she helped create, she ran for the Senate in 2012 and unseated a GOP incumbent. She has $11 million left over from her commanding 2018 Senate re-election victory that can be used on her presidential run. (TIME, 2/10/19)

Biden – McClatchy interviewed 31 Democratic strategists — pollsters, opposition research experts, media consultants, ex-party officials, and communications specialists — from across the country about a potential Biden campaign. Nine agreed to speak on the record; all others quoted anonymously do not plan to be affiliated with any candidate running in the presidential primary. Strikingly, these conversations yielded a similar view: The Democratic political community is more broadly and deeply pessimistic about Biden’s potential candidacy than is commonly known. While these strategists said they respect Biden, they cited significant disadvantages for his campaign — from the increasingly liberal and non-white Democratic electorate to policy baggage from his years in the Senate and a field of rivals that includes new, fresh-faced candidates. (McClatchy, 2/11/19)

Sanders – Bernie Sanders has seen himself as on a mission since he started running for office in the 1970s, and he sees no reason to stop now. He thinks he’s dramatically changed the conversation over the past three years, and he feels like he’s close to achieving his ultimate goal…Sanders will likely announce an exploratory committee in the coming weeks, followed by a rally. (The Atlantic, 2/8/19)

Holder –  Former Attorney Gen. Eric Holder said Tuesday he is in the final stages of deciding whether to seek the 2020 Democratic nomination for president and plans to decide in about a month. “I’m going to sit down with my family very soon and decide whether this is something we’re going to seek,” Holder told reporters after headlining a voting rights forum at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa.

Mouton – Rep. Seth Moulton, D-Mass., is considering entering his party’s growing field of presidential candidates. “I’m thinking about running for president,” Moulton told BuzzFeed News. “I’m not definitely running, but I’m going to take a very hard look at it. A very serious look at it. Because I believe it’s time for a new generation of leadership, and we gotta send Donald Trump packing.” Moulton, 40, would be one of the younger side of the Democratic field. The third-term House member gained some following as a persistent critic of now-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi before and after the 2018 midterm elections, which gave Democrats a majority in the chamber. Moulton called for a “new generation of leadership” and tried to organize and intra-party challenge to Pelosi. But a viable alternative failed to materialize. (Washington Examiner, 2/11/19)

Eric Swalwell – Doesn’t have the star power of Kamala Harris, the progressive following of Elizabeth Warren, or the silverback status of Joe Biden. But the three-term California congressman — who’s edging closer to a longer-than-longshot presidential bid — does have one advantage in the crowded Democratic presidential field if he chooses to run: Iowa, the state where he was born. Swalwell does, however, have a growing national profile thanks to his frequent cable television appearances. He serves on the Judiciary Committee, which is charged with oversight of President Donald Trump’s immigration policy — and where the impeachment process would start if Democrats go down that road. And he has a high-visibility slot on the Intelligence Committee at a time when the Russia investigation continues to rate high on the minds of Democratic primary voters. (Politico, 2/12/19)

Booker – A week after joining a growing Democratic field for the 2020 presidential nomination, the former mayor of Newark, N.J., made his first official campaign stops in South Carolina, speaking in a Columbia church and addressing a town hall in Winnsboro. Booker started his campaign for the S.C. primary with a trip to Right Direction Church International on Broad River Road. Bishop Herbert Bailey, a native of Jersey City, had spoken to Booker earlier and invited him to attend his S.C. church if he decided to run. “I didn’t think he would take me up on it,” Bailey told the congregation. Booker continued his campaign with an event at Fairfield Central High School in Winnsboro. The event was billed as a forum on rural health care in a county that saw its only hospital closeat the end of 2018. (The State, 2/10/19)

Delaney  – of Maryland was the first Democrat in the presidential race, announcing his candidacy back in July 2017. Now, as he makes his 14^th trip to New Hampshire, Delaney is among a field of candidates that has quickly expanded to include people with broader name recognition, more hard-line progressive positions stands on key policy, more diversity and, in some cases, a more confrontational approach to taking on President Donald Trump. But Delaney, a former three-term U.S. representative from Maryland, is undeterred. Far from it. He welcomes the sudden flood of competitors, confident that his brand of politics – he calls himself a “pragmatic progressive” – will find support among voters in the Granite State, Iowa and beyond. (WMUR, 2/12/19)

Former Maryland U.S. Rep. John Delaney now has official headquarters in New Hampshire. The Democratic candidate for president opened the office on Canal Street in Manchester Monday night.

Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio), a high-profile House moderate, said Wednesday evening he is “seriously considering” a presidential run in 2020. Ryan rose to prominence after challenging then-House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) for her post in 2016. He garnered about a third of the Democratic conference’s support in the unsuccessful effort, underlining significant divisions within the caucus. (The Hill, 2/14/19)

Yang – Chances are you haven’t heard of Andrew Yang even though he’s been running for president for more than a year now. By any objective standard, he is the longest of long shots. He has never held political office, he isn’t a celebrity, and while he has been a successful entrepreneur, he isn’t a billionaire who commands media attention. But he is tackling head-on one of the biggest challenges facing American society—what happens when rapid automation eliminates millions of jobs. He says that left unchecked, it “will strain our society beyond repair.”  (Council on Foreign Relations, 2/12/19 )

Buttigeig – During his overnight drive into Iowa from Indiana, Pete Buttigieg logged onto Twitter to pass the time. “Good time to chat: any questions?” he typed. Among the nearly 600 responses, one user took the opportunity to ask the South Bend, Indiana, mayor for advice on how to bring positive change to his home state. “Start local, and don’t wait for permission,” Buttigieg wrote back. In some ways, Buttigieg could have been talking about himself in Iowa this weekend and his run for the White House. Friday marked Buttigieg’s first trip to the lead-off caucus state since announcing last month that he would launch a presidential exploratory committee. A lieutenant in the Navy Reserve who was deployed to Afghanistan in 2014, Buttigieg was also asked about issues like veterans care, abortion, religion, student loan debt and LGBTQ protections. Buttigieg’s potential run would be historic. He would be the first openly gay president, if elected. At 37, he would also be the youngest. (Des Moines Register, 2/8/19)

Bloomberg – Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg said Friday that he’ll decide by the end of the month whether to seek the presidency.

Gabbard – Gabbard made campaign stops in Des Moines and Fairfield on Monday before heading to Iowa City. It was Gabbard’s first visit to Iowa City since announcing her candidacy in January. Gabbard began her message with a call for unity in a divided political climate.  Gabbard named the environment as one of her most important platform issues, calling for making environmental protections a top priority. “When our founding fathers wrote our Constitution, they built this foundation based on a recognition of a government of the people, by the people, and for the people,” Gabbard said. “Do you feel that representation in Washington today?” “This is an issue that should not be partisan,” she said. “This is an issue about humanity. This is an issue about our future.” Prison reform, financial regulations, and health care were also issues the candidate focused on. Gabbard proclaimed her support for Medicare for All, a universal health-care system that would guarantee care for all.  (Daily Iowan, 2/11/19)

New Hampshire – Weld is the scheduled speaker Friday morning at the Politics & Eggs series in Bedford, which has traditionally served as a backdrop for White House wannabes to introduce themselves to the first-in-the-nation primary state. As Commonwealth magazine first reported, Weld visited the town hall in his hometown of Canton on Jan. 17 and switched his political registration back to Republican. And later last month, several outlets reported that he was considering running against President Donald Trump in the 2020 GOP primary. Weld has since stayed tight-lipped about his plans. “I’m not going to have anything to say until my talk at Politics and Eggs,” he told WMUR. (Boston.com, 2/13/19)

• Former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld said on Friday that he is exploring a challenge to President Donald Trump for the Republican nomination in 2020. “Our president is simply too unstable to carry out the duties of the highest executive office in the land,” Weld said as he announced the launch of an exploratory committee at Politics & Eggs in Bedford, N.H. The breakfast program is considered a must for 2020 hopefuls in the early voting state. “I’m here because I think our country is in grave peril, and I cannot sit any longer quietly on the sidelines,” Weld added. “We have a president who openly praises and encourages despotic and authoritarian leaders abroad while going out of his way seemingly to insult and even humiliate our Democratic allies.”..At the Libertarian Party’s 2016 convention, Weld said he was a “Libertarian for life.” He continued courting Libertarian groups after November, but appears to have done an about-face for 2020. Leading up to Friday’s announcement, there was some speculation as to whether Weld would run as a Republican or a Libertarian. Weld said the political moment is too urgent to stick with the Libertarian Party, which he said functions as a “protest vote” in the general election. “That’s a poser, that’s an issue and people are entitled to take that into account. It’s just, the stakes have gotten higher,” Weld told reporters. Weld had voiced support for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in the weeks leading up to the 2016 election, but told reporters on Friday he’s not sure Clinton would have been a better president than Trump. (Politico, 2/14/19)

DP debate selection – the DNC announced its criteria for how 2020 candidates will qualify for its first debates this summer. In order to qualify for debates, candidates will need:

• To register 1 percent or more support in three polls between January 1 and two weeks before the debate. These polls don’t necessarily have to be national polls; public polls in the first four primary and caucus states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and/or Nevada also qualify. But they have to be done by major news organizations or qualifying universities.
• The DNC is also trying to incentivize grassroots donations. Candidates can qualify for the debates if they show their campaign has received donations from at least 65,000 unique donors and a minimum of 200 unique donors per state in at least 20 US states. (Vox, 2/14/19)

Celebrity – Marianne Williamson, whose previous run for the seat of California’s 33rd congressional district as an Independent in 2014 was endorsed by Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm and former Congressman Dennis Kucinich, as well as actors and celebrities like Laura Dern and Kim Kardashian, isn’t like most candidates running today—mainly because she’s not a politician. But here’s everything you should know about her. (Marie Claire, 2/8/19)

# # #

By Jackie Salit

First published by IVN
February 13, 2019

There is a dirty word in American politics, worse than “crook,” more terrible than “philanderer” more despicable than “liar.” The word is “spoiler.”

A crook, a philanderer and a liar sully the character of an office, or enrich themselves at the public trough, or violate the public trust. These offenses are punishable, sometimes forgivable. But “spoiler” is the Scarlet Letter. The perpetrator has committed a special crime, one that changes the course of events as they were meant to be. The spoiler brings about a perversion, an unintended consequence, an unnatural outcome.

Or so the Democratic Party would have us believe. After all, if you must defeat Donald Trump to save civilization-as-we-know-it, you must preserve, protect and defend…the Democratic Party!  Consequently, the announcement by Howard Schultz, founder of Starbucks, that he is considering a run for President as an independent has brought the Wrath of the Liberal Gods down upon him.

Schultz appeared almost three weeks ago on the CBS show 60 Minutes to break the news. Scott Pelley played the part of the incorruptible interviewer unafraid to ask the tough questions, as if Schultz were Vladimir Putin or Bashar Al-Assad. First question: “Why run as an independent? Your views have always aligned with the Democratic Party.” Second question: “Do you worry that you’re going to siphon votes away from the Democrats and, thereby, ensure that President Trump has a second term?”

While I was agitated at first by Pelley’s line of questioning, I realized that he had hit the nail on the head. Because a subplot of the 2020 presidential contest is to question whether the Democratic Party outright owns the opposition to President Trump.  Put another way, should the American people be permitted to consider and determine an alternative form of an opposition?

We barely heard the tick-tock of the signature 60 Minutes clock at the end of the segment when Twitter feeds lit up. Professor Larry Sabato, Director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, and inexplicably the go-to “expert” on all things independent, immediately objected to Schultz’s statement that 40% of the electorate are independents. This statement was a core piece of Schultz’s story. The partisan system is no longer serving the interests of the country. Schultz isn’t the only one who sees the problem. 40% of the country does as well.

Naturally, Sabato had to pull the rug out from under all that, tweeting that being an independent is “just a popular cover label for hidden partisans, who are quite loyal to their hidden party.”  Sabato then joined the chorus of pundits, pollsters, politicians, and poobahs denouncing Schultz as a spoiler. Perhaps they’d like to throw Schultz in the water and see if he sinks.

Howard Schultz, should he decide to run, will want to prove himself to the 40% and to the independent movement’s leaders, since independents do not automatically vote for anyone, including independents.  That’s the point, independent voters want to vote for the person, not the party.  This community of voters has been swinging across the political divide and deciding national elections since 2008 for reasons that the political establishment refuses to take seriously. At the very least, Schultz is taking us seriously.

Others were quick to condemn the possibility of a Schultz run, including Michael Bloomberg. Having run Mike’s three Independence Party mayoral campaigns, and having helped to spur his efforts to bring nonpartisan political reform to New York City (sadly, we failed) I give him credit for his past independent leadership. Now that he is a Democrat, surrounded by Democratic advisors, I fear he has lost his “independent touch.” Bloomberg’s polemic against Schultz is based on the “data.” This data “proved” that the White House was unwinnable for an independent in 2016 and, more importantly, that such a scenario would elect Donald Trump. Ergo, Howard should stand down in 2020 because he is a spoiler. Never mind that Trump won the election in 2016 after Mike stood down.

 

All the “data” in the world might miss the public appetite for an electoral revolt that overwhelms the two-party status quo.  We surely need to give that possibility room to breathe.  Political science, polling and traditional numbers-crunching are sometimes competent at capturing what is, though they missed the 2016 presidential election by a mile. But how shall we measure something that is becoming? And more importantly, how do we disrupters navigate through a system that is structured to crush the possibility that something in the process of becoming can be actualized?

America’s troubles did not begin when Donald Trump made his way to the White House, far from it. Steve Schmidt, the sharp-tongued human steamroller political consultant who is now advising Schultz, offered a blistering critique of the Liberal Establishment’s attacks on Schultz.  “Are we fated into perpetuity to be in this cycle of revenge politics, of self-interest…or can we do something better?”  Schmidt goes on, “We decry rightly the illiberalism of Donald Trump, his attacks on the press, his attacks on the rule of law. But what about the illiberalism of people who claim to oppose Trump who shout down people from the public square?”

Schmidt asks good questions, but doesn’t go far enough. For the immediate hysteria of the Democratic Party opinion makers has an identifiable cause. The party is mired in its own internal battles—left vs. center, Old Guard vs. Young Turks, black and brown vs. white, female vs. male, the proponents of supertaxing the superrich vs. the fiscal moderates. These factions will compete for the nomination, a competition that will run through the all-important early fundraising, the primary debates, the primaries and caucuses and the delegated convention in July.  In order to mend ideological fences, bring the party back together and mount a fierce general election campaign, the Democratic leadership must promote the idea that anything and everything must be sacrificed and back-burnered to drive Donald Trump from office. Thus, the “spoiler” argument must be weaponized early and without reserve.

The fact is that no one knows what the outcome of a three-way or four-way race for the Presidency in 2020 might produce. This is an unprecedented environment, and yes, independent voters are very much in play. Right now Independent Voting is pressing the parties, particularly the Democratic Party, to guarantee that all its presidential primaries will be open to non-aligned voters. Should they accede to that, it could open not just the parties’ primaries, which denied access to over 25 million independents in 2016, but a process for negotiating a potential Independent/Democrat political coalition for 2020.

For now, Howard Schultz is doing the country a great service, whether he planned to or not.  He is forcing a public conversation about the 2020 presidential process, about the 40% of Americans who are independents, and about the authoritarian self-interest of the Democratic Party. That’s a good start.

Join Jackie Salit’s National Conference call entitled, “Independent Eyes on 2020: Howard Schultz, Hysterical Democrats, Authoritarian Republicans and the Rules of the Game.” Sign up here and submit a question to Jackie.

Read: “A Brief Recap of Some Spoiler Controversies”  w/ historical news footage from prior independent campaigns.

By Jackie Salit

Since Howard Schultz’s announcement, and the sudden surge of spoiler propaganda, much has been made of the 1992 independent presidential campaign of Ross Perot who, it is frequently asserted, “cost” George H.W. Bush his re-election. Take a few minutes to look at the 10 minute mini-documentary created by Five-Thirty-Eight titled “The Perot Myth,” which chronicles the fallacy of that spoiler myth. Perot actually pulled equally from Republican and Democrat voters.

Let us not forget that Perot was under attack from multiple sides as soon as he started showing in the polls. These attacks persisted into his second run in 1996, when the tactic of his candidacy became to promote an all-independents primary and to create a new political party. Opponents went to work dismissing the Perot Movement as a “sham” and “shell game” by an egoistic billionaire. Sound familiar? Here’s a link to a CNBC show I did with GOP strategist John Podhoretz at the time, where we debated the “reality” of the movement.

In 1988, a Black developmental psychologist and radical community organizer, Dr. Lenora Fulani, ran for President as an independent and was the first woman and first African American to access the ballot in all 50 states. Turning the spoiler attack on its head, Fulani appealed to Black voters to use their power to deny Michael Dukakis and the Democratic Party the White House in response to their treatment of Jesse Jackson and the Rainbow Coalition.  She found herself in the crosshairs of Democratic wrath when Michael Dukakis advisor Ron Brown called her campaign “ridiculous.” Here are portions of a CBS news clip from 1988 covering the controversy.

Every week I curate a set of “Top Notes” of media coverage on the 2020 presidential elections. Read it to keep up to date on latest developments.
– Sarah Lyons, Director of Communications, Independent Voting

 

January 31 – February 6, 2019

Howard Shultz

Steve Shultz (campaign advisor) – “Let’s look at what Howard Schultz has said that set off this frenzy. He said he wants to have a conversation with the American people to see if perhaps, the hour of disruption maybe at hand for our utterly broken political system. And make no mistake about it the brokenness of that political system is what resulted in the election of Donald J. Trump. Are we fated into perpetuity to be in this cycle to be of revenge politics, of self interest, where the American people are not represented, their future is not represented or can we do something better? So, 600 days before the election, he’s asked a question. We decry rightly the illiberalism of Donald Trump, his attacks on the press, his attacks on the rule of law. But what about the illiberalism of people who claim to oppose Trump who shout down people from the public square? It seems that for some the progressive utopia that’s on the horizon is one that will not come about by persuasion but by imposition because you better dare not speak out of line or out of turn, no deviation or you are shouted down. And by the way, the people who are doing the shouting almost universally are the people who said Joe Biden shouldn’t run because it was Hillary Clinton’s turn. And they put their thumb on the scale for Hillary Clinton against Bernie Sanders because he couldn’t win. And they guaranteed us that Donald Trump would never be elected.”  (MSNBC, 1/31/19)

Debate Inclusion – In 2016, the reigning party duopoly offered the public two candidates with combined negative ratings at election time of 113%. Clearly, the political system is not working, and Americans are growing more alienated and sour on their government. A solution is within reach — which is why those of us with faith that our democracy can be reinvigorated are watching the J. Barrett Prettyman Federal Courthouse with such anticipation and optimism. (CNN, 1/29/19)

• New internal polling from former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz shows him pulling about 17 percent of the vote in hypothetical presidential matchups between President Trump and either Democrat Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren. Schulz wins about 17 percent in each of the two ballot tests, new internal polling provided first to “Meet the Press” shows. In both, Trump leads the Democrat by a margin of 33 percent to 32 percent. Even though Schultz trails both candidates, him sitting above 15 percent is important because that’s historically been the threshold candidates need to hit to be included in general election debates. The result comes after Schultz has taken a beating from Democrats concerned he may divert votes from their nominee. (NBC, 1/3/19)

Upcoming Events

• Undaunted by Democratic attacks, former Starbucks chief executive Howard Schultz plans to deliver a major policy address at Purdue University on Thursday to further explain his vision for an independent presidential campaign that would take aim at the country’s two-party political system.

Internal Polling – Schultz pollster Greg Strimple released internal data Sunday that he argued was evidence of real traction for an independent campaign by Schultz. The numbers suggest Schultz is currently far from winning a plurality of the three-way vote in a general election but could still qualify for the general election debates in the fall of 2020, which have a 15 percent national polling threshold. “The American people understand what the elites do not — after years of ideological extremism, extreme partisanship, government dysfunction and failure to act to advance their needs — the American people are disillusioned with the corrupted two-party system and are looking for an alternative,” Strimple wrote in the polling memo. “Despite the torrent of skepticism from Twitter, Washington, D.C., the political punditocracy, and partisan elites, the American people reacted positively to the idea that the two-party system is broken and it’s time.” (WaPo, 2/4/19)

External Polling – A new Politico/Morning Consult poll effectively crushes any forlorn hope that Schultz and Schmidt might damage Trump’s chances for re-election in the same way Ross Perot damaged George H.W. Bush’s chances in 1992. On the contrary, the poll indicates that Democrats and NeverTrump Republicans (or former Republicans) are more likely than Republican Trump supporters to vote for a third-party candidate like Howard Schultz. Nearly a third of Democrats in the survey, 31 percent, said they would consider a third-party candidate, compared with 25 percent of Republicans. This suggests that if Schultz is on the ballot on Election Day 2020, he’d be likely to strip more votes from the Democratic nominee than from Trump. In an era when elections are decided by a few points or less, a nudge by Schultz might well be enough to re-elect Donald Trump. Toss more Russian hacking and propaganda onto the blaze and suddenly a repeat of 2016, or worse, could be in our not-too-distant futures. (Salon, 2/5/19)

PRO Shultz

• Allan Murray, President of Fortune magazine – “Journalist Peter Goodman tweeted: ‘If there is a single person on planet earth who thinks Howard Schultz running for President is wonderful, they are keeping it well hidden.’ So let me step forward: I think it’s a good idea. I think it’s a good idea because someone needs to challenge the two-party stranglehold on American politics. America’s biggest business competitiveness problem is its broken political system. As Harvard business professor Michael Porter and Katherine Gehl argued in this piece in Fortune, the two parties act like a classic duopoly, serving their own needs but not those of the country.” (Fortune, 1/31/19)
• Greg Orman / Neal Simon – (Full oped for WSJ below).
• Pittsburg Post Gazette Editorial Board – Let Mr. Schultz go to the country and make his case. And let the people, not the elites, decide. The notion of someone in the center, who is not Donald Trump and also not Ms. Harris or Bernie Sanders or Liz Warren, may have a lot of appeal for a lot of Americans, especially disenchanted Republicans and independents. The “spoiler” argument, which is as old as political entitlement and opportunism, is really undemocratic and un-American. It is undemocratic because, in a democracy, every candidate “spoils” it for every other candidate running. That’s the idea. It is un-American because no one is entitled to office, any office, or to any block of voters. And no one is entitled to limit another citizen’s choices. (Post-Gazette, 2/3/19)
• Letter to Editor- As a former Hawaii alternate delegate to the 2016 Republican National Convention, I agree completely with former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz’s assessment that America is looking for more choices in a presidential election. For too long, the American people have been misled into a fantasy that third party candidates sabotage the chances of unseating an unpopular candidate. The reality is that the failure or success of any candidate rests exclusively on the strength of their ideas and the likability of their party. Democrats and Republicans alike cry “Ross Perot!” as a stab-in-the-back legend to keep voters stuck in a paradigm of left vs. right. Schultz, however, understands that this two-party system makes as much sense as coffee shops bitterly dividing into a competition of decaf vs. regular. (USA Today, 1/3/19)
• Iowa opinion piece– Howard Schultz should be welcomed to Iowa…Frankly, at this time of deep partisan divide, we believe value exists for Americans in hearing more voices from the middle who challenge both Democrats and Republicans. If nothing else, in our view, an independent candidacy would add an interesting twist to the 2020 presidential election. We aren’t saying Schultz is our candidate, we’re simply saying no one should slam the door in his face and attempt to silence him because he isn’t toeing a line. America’s election for president doesn’t, or shouldn’t, belong only to the two dominant political parties. (Sioux City Journal, 2/6/19)
• Frank Donatelli – The odds are strongly against an independent winning the White House. That is typically because major parties are smart enough to co-opt their issues. But what if the parties stubbornly cling to more familiar territory? The major parties have retreated into comfortable enclaves of left and right. Our politics does not offer a proper reward structure for building successful coalitions that include independent and centrist voters, who are forced to choose from what the major parties are offering. What if a Schultz candidacy forced the major parties to broaden their appeal? Would we reduce snark and sound bite campaigning? Would the parties address broader issues, not narrow, partisan concerns?  If so, that would be good. If not, maybe Schultz could win. That might be good too. Frank Donatelli served as assistant for political affairs to President Ronald Reagan and as deputy chairman of the Republican National Committee during the 2008 presidential campaign of John McCain. (Detroit News, 2/4/19)

Naysayers

• Axelrod – “I think it’s a gift for Donald Trump. I agree with that analysis. All you have to do is look at the last election and how Independent candidates took just enough from Hillary Clinton in Michigan and perhaps Wisconsin to tip those states. I think Schultz has the ability to do much more damage to the Democratic nominee, primarily because he’ll put his personal wealth behind it. (New Yorker, 2/2/19)
• Jay Inslee – Come into the pool and compete as a Democrat. The only possibly result is to help Trump. (CBSN, 1/20/19)
• Michael Moore – Speaking on “Late Night with Seth Meyers,” leftist propagandist Michael Moore has called for a boycott on the coffee chain until Schultz steps down (Daily Wire, 2/1/19)
• Bloomberg – Bloomberg’s assumption is that an independent would divide the vote for change. But why couldn’t Mr. Schultz appeal to independents and Republicans who voted reluctantly for Mr. Trump but are put off by the constant chaos of his governing style? Mr. Bloomberg is right that an independent probably can’t win the presidential race. But Mr. Schultz’s ultimate appeal would depend on how he campaigned and which issues he stressed. (WSJ, 1/29/19)
• Adam Parkhomenko, the founder of activist group Ready for Hillary and a Clinton campaign staffer, has launched the unequivocally named website, com, to make sure Schultz gets to meet more indignant hecklers denouncing his obscene financial success and selfish plans to ruin the Democrats’ hopes of dethroning Trump. (Daily Wire, 1/30/19)

Booker – Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., officially launched his 2020 presidential campaign Friday, invoking a message of economic populism and racial justice along with a veiled swipe at President Donald Trump’s leadership. The 49-year-old former mayor of Newark, New Jersey. who joined a fast-growing field of hopefuls vying for a White House run, released a video and sent an email to supporters announcing his decision. “I believe that we can build a country where no one is forgotten, no one is left behind; where parents can put food on the table; where there are good paying jobs with good benefits in every neighborhood; where our criminal justice system keeps us safe, instead of shuffling more children into cages and coffins; where we see the faces of our leaders on television and feel pride, not shame,” Booker said. He plans to travel to the early states of Iowa and South Carolina next week and New Hampshire over President’s Day weekend. Booker gave the keynote address at the Iowa Democratic Party’s Fall Gala in October. (NBC, 2/1/19)

Harris – Sen. Kamala Harris …presidential launch last month included raising $1.5 million in the first the day, drawing a crowd of 22,000 to her opening speech in her hometown of Oakland, and appearing for a ratings-busting town hall on CNN, announced Tuesday that she’ll visit all four early states later this month. Harris’ travel over the final two weeks of February will first take her back to South Carolina, a state she’s aggressively targeting as part of what her campaign strategists have dubbed “the SEC primary meets the West Coast offense” — a reference both to the SEC college athletic conference and Harris’ focus on Nevada and her delegate-rich home state of California. Harris will then make two-day swings through New Hampshire (Feb. 18-19) and Iowa (Feb. 23-24), where she appeared in the CNN town hall, before finishing up the early-state blitz in Nevada (Feb. 28-March 1). Her campaign did not release details about the stops. (Politico, 2/5/19)

O’Rourke – During a taped interview for Winfrey’s SuperSoul Conversations, set to premiere Feb. 16, the Texas Democrat edged closer to becoming a 2020 presidential candidate. Former Rep. Beto O’Rourke will decide whether to run for president “before the end of this month,” he told Oprah Winfrey in an interview Tuesday. “We want to play as great a role as possible making sure that this country lives up to our expectations — to the promise, to the potential that we all know her to have,” the Texas Democrat said. Then, after telling Winfrey he has been “thinking about running for president,” he said, “I’ve got to tell you, and you can tell, I’m so excited at the prospect of being able to play that role.” (CNN, 2/5/19)

Klobuchar – Plans a “big announcement” on Sunday, boosting the speculation that she will join the growing pool of presidential hopefuls. “I’m making a big announcement on Sunday,” Klobuchar said on Twitter. In an interview with MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow, she said she’d make clear her decision on whether or not to run for president. The announcement is planned for Boom Island in Minneapolis, a park overlooking the Mississippi River. (Bloomberg, 2/5/19)

Weld – The former governor of Massachusetts and the Libertarian Party’s 2016 nominee for vice president, has rejoined the Republican Party that made him a rising political star. Gale McHugo, Canton’s assistant town clerk, said Weld, 73, came in Jan. 17 and changed his party affiliation from Libertarian to Republican with a form process that took “less than a minute. It was very matter of fact and the same thing we would do for any voter. (Boston Herald, 2/6/19)

New Hampshire – .John Delaney will open his Manchester campaign office next Monday, Feb 11th, followed by two days of campaigning + several issue-based roundtable events around the state.

WALL STREET JOURNAL
2/3/19
Greg Orman & Neil Simon

Thirty seconds into Howard Schultz’s first campaign event last Monday in New York City, one attendee yelled “Don’t help elect Trump, you egotistical, billionaire a—h—!” The shouter was joined by thousands of vitriolic posts on social media. The mainstream media, which thrives on tribal warfare, added fuel to the fire, urging Mr. Schultz not to run for president…

All this happened before anything was known about Mr. Schultz’s positions or vision for the U.S. Instead, Democrats attacked him for potentially “spoiling” the 2020 election. The media responded in kind, focusing on the horse race, not the horse.

Mr. Schultz has every right to run, and every right to run outside the two major parties. America’s Founding Fathers wanted a republic without political parties. They feared that one day Americans might put party above country, and their fears have come true.

The Democrats attacking Mr. Schultz act as if only Republicans have failed the country. Yet in 2009 Democrats held the presidency, a large House majority and, for a time, a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. But Democrats didn’t provide the Dreamers a path to citizenship and did nothing to reduce the debt or control prescription-drug prices.

Eighty-one percent of voters are now dissatisfied or angry with Washington. Almost the only political statement on which Americans can agree is that the government, whether in Republican or Democratic hands, is failing.

Americans consistently say they want a third option. But in 2016 many felt forced to choose the lesser of two evils. It’s easy to imagine a similar situation in 2020.

People want their votes to matter. That’s why independent and third-party presidential candidates usually underperform. But in 2016 an average of 76 million Americans tuned in to each of the three general-election debates. If Mr. Schultz is the clear winner on stage in 2020, throw the rulebook for independent candidates out the window. With a credible and well-funded campaign, Mr. Schultz just might assure Americans they finally can vote for a candidate who inspires them instead of voting against a candidate they fear.

It costs a lot of money—at least $266 million, according to campaign consultant Douglas Schoen—to build an independent candidate’s name recognition and support to the point at which he would be invited to the presidential debates. But Mr. Schultz can afford it. He can run to win.

Mr. Schultz’s candidacy also would elevate political discourse. Unable to focus solely on smearing each other, the two major parties would have to spend more time on substantive discussion of the issues to distinguish themselves from the centrist challenger. For example, Mr. Schultz has begun to lay out middle-ground positions on immigration and health care. These will make it tougher for other candidates to oversimplify the issues.

We need to learn more about Mr. Schultz’s policies before he earns our support, but we believe firmly that he has the right to run, and that his candidacy could elevate American politics. Social-media bullies are trying to scare him from running for president, but we doubt it’ll work.

If you are a Democrat worried about Mr. Schultz playing spoiler, don’t insult him; instead, convince voters that another candidate is better. Our government doesn’t belong eternally to Democrats and Republicans, and American voters deserve another choice. Mr. Schultz, ignore the naysayers. Go for it.

Mr. Simon, a Maryland business executive and community leader, was an independent candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018. Mr. Orman, a Kansas entrepreneur, was an independent candidate for U.S. Senate in 2014 and governor in 2018.

 

WSJ EDITORIAL BOARD

Jan. 28, 2019 7:38 p.m. ET

Mike Bloomberg vs. Howard Schultz

How dare another billionaire decide to run for President?

The billionaires are battling, and this should be fun. So it has gone the last two days as Howard Schultz, former Starbucks CEO, told CBS’s “60 Minutes” on Sunday that he may run for President as an independent in 2020. That drew a lightning bolt from Mount Bloomberg, also known as former New York City Mayor Michael, who declared that an independent can’t win and would help President Trump.

“Now I have never been a partisan guy—and it’s no secret that I looked at an independent bid in the past. In fact I faced exactly the same decision now facing others who are considering it,” Mr. Bloomberg, a billionaire many times over, said in a statement Monday. “The data was very clear and very consistent. Given the strong pull of partisanship and the realities of the electoral college system, there is no way an independent can win.”

Even worse, Mr. Bloomberg said, “In 2020, the great likelihood is that an independent would just split the anti-Trump vote and end up re-electing the President. That’s a risk I refused to run in 2016 and we can’t afford to run it now.”

You have to admire the exquisite self-interest of Mr. Bloomberg’s timing. Having explored an independent run to a fare-thee-well twice, Mr. Bloomberg now says it’s a bad idea when this time he may run for the Democratic nomination. He’s afraid an independent run by Mr. Schultz would hurt the Democratic nominee.

But would it? We recall the spring of 1992 when everyone thought Ross Perot’s candidacy would also divide the Democratic vote. In the end Mr. Perot split the Republican coalition, won 19% and helped to elect Bill Clinton.

Mr. Bloomberg’s assumption is that an independent would divide the vote for change. But why couldn’t Mr. Schultz appeal to independents and Republicans who voted reluctantly for Mr. Trump but are put off by the constant chaos of his governing style?

Mr. Bloomberg is right that an independent probably can’t win the presidential race. But Mr. Schultz’s ultimate appeal would depend on how he campaigned and which issues he stressed. His appeal in a three-way race would also depend on how far left the Democrats go with their nominee. If Democrats nominate a centrist, that candidate might co-opt Mr. Schultz’s likely focus on the economy and federal debt.

Mr. Bloomberg should run if he thinks he can win, but being a billionaire doesn’t make him prescient about the 2020 election.

# # #

By Jeremy W. Peters

April 9, 2016

WASHINGTON — When it comes to nominating presidential candidates, it turns out the world’s foremost democracy is not so purely democratic.

For decades, both major parties have used a somewhat convoluted process for picking their nominees, one that involves ordinary voters in only an indirect way. As Americans flock this year to outsider candidates, the kind most hindered by these rules, they are suddenly waking up to this reality. And their confusion and anger are adding another volatile element to an election being waged over questions of fairness and equality.

In Nashville a week ago, supporters of Donald J. Trump accused Republican leaders of trying to stack the state’s delegate slate with people who were anti-Trump. The Trump campaign posted the cellphone number of the state party chairman on Twitter, leading him to be inundated with calls. Several dozen people showed up at the meeting at which delegates were being named, banged on the windows and demanded to be let in.

Backers of Senator Bernie Sanders, bewildered at why he keeps winning states but cannot seem to cut into Hillary Clinton’s delegate count because of her overwhelming lead with “superdelegates,” have used Reddit and Twitter to start an aggressive pressure campaign to flip votes.

Javier Morillo, a member of the Democratic National Committee and a superdelegate from Minnesota, said he discovered his email posted on a website called a “Superdelegate Hit List.”The list had an illustration of a donkey, the party’s symbol, with two crossbow arrows behind its head. “I was a little annoyed,” he said.

Mr. Morillo, who is backing Mrs. Clinton, said he tried at first to reply to all the emails beseeching him to switch his support to Mr. Sanders, the Vermont senator who won 62 percent of the vote in Minnesota’s caucuses. But the volume has gotten so high lately, he said, “I haven’t been able to keep up.”

If supporters of Mr. Trump and Mr. Sanders feel stymied by the delegate process, that is because it was designed years ago precisely to make it difficult for candidates like them to become their nominee — candidates who party leaders believe, rightly or wrongly, could never win in November.

Like with any private members-only club — political parties are not official government entities — the party leaders exercise considerable control over which candidate gets their endorsement and the attendant privilege of using their political infrastructure, financial support and loyal voter base, without which winning in November is all but impossible.

In the earliest days of the republic, members of Congress determined the presidential nominees, cutting ordinary Americans out of the process. The national convention system has evolved over more than a century and a half to gradually decentralize the decision making.

But not completely. The role of Democratic superdelegates was created after the 1980 election to ensure that rank-and-file voters could not easily vote in an activist candidate. Superdelegates include major Democratic elected officials like governors and members of Congress; national and state party leaders; and notable party figures like former presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton. Democrats have added more superdelegates over the years, and this year they will make up 16 percent of all delegates.

Each of their votes has equal weight to delegates awarded through primaries and caucuses. In New Hampshire, for example, the site of Mr. Sanders’s first big victory, he won about 150,000 votes and 15 traditional delegates. Hillary Clinton won nine traditional delegates. But because six of New Hampshire’s superdelegates are supporting her (the other two are uncommitted), she is effectively tied with Mr. Sanders in the state.

Republicans have far fewer superdelegates. But the way the party conducts elections — a complex, layered system of contests that selects local delegates who in turn select state delegates who then vote for national delegates — can be difficult for newcomers without sophisticated operations to penetrate, as Mr. Trump is discovering.

“It’s hard to start explaining now,” said Curly Haugland, the Republican national committeeman in North Dakota who has tried to draw attention this year to the important role that delegates play. Mr. Haugland summed up the collective realization of many voters this way: “These primaries weren’t really worth much — except maybe to spend a billion dollars.”

Even if Mr. Trump wins a state, the delegates who are supposed to vote for him at the national convention might privately support one of his opponents, and if no candidate clinches the nomination after the convention’s first ballot, these delegates are usually freed from the requirement that they represent the preference of the voters back home. The campaign of Senator Ted Cruz of Texas has been working in many states to get his supporters named as delegates, even if they must vote for Mr. Trump on the first ballot.

Though some voters are only now discovering that sometimes their choices amount to little more than a Facebook “like,” party leaders today say the rules are nothing new.

Debbie Wasserman Schultz, the chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee, pointed out that superdelegates have been around “since 1984, the year I graduated high school,” and have never been a decisive factor. Sean Spicer, the chief strategist for the Republican National Committee, said of the rules, “This is a process that has existed since the 1800s,” even though he acknowledged, “It is incumbent on us to explain it.”

Jackie Salit, the President of Independent Voting,  sent the following letter to Tom Perez, chair of the Democratic National Committee. She invited independent activists and leaders in her network to join in this outreach. The letter urges that he meet with a group of independent leaders and take the decisive step of opening the 2020 presidential primaries and caucuses to independent voters.

(This letter was signed onto by 945 independent leaders from 50 states)

Every week I curate a set of “Top Notes” of media coverage on the 2020 presidential elections. Read it to keep up to date on latest developments.
– Sarah Lyons, Director of Communications, Independent Voting

 

January 23 – 30, 2019

Trump – Amid chatter of a potential Republican primary challenger, the Republican National Committee (RNC) has sent a message to party members: get behind Donald Trump in 2020. On Friday, the RNC unanimously voted to give Trump “undivided support”ahead of the 2020 presidential election. Although largely symbolic, the vote comes as the longest government shutdown in U.S. history sinks the president’s approval rating. But it’s worth noting that, as The Washington Post pointed out, the resolution passed by the RNC isn’t an official endorsement of a Trump 2020 campaign. According to the paper, such an endorsement was discussed by some RNC members. Ultimately, however, concerns over whether such an endorsement would force the RNC to abide by Federal Election Commission rules well before the 2020 election kicked off kept the political committee from offering more than Republicans’ “undivided support.” (Bustle, 1/26/19)

Howard Schultz – “I can’t think of anything that is a more quintessential expression of our democracy than providing the American people with a choice that doesn’t have to be binary between the Republican and the Democrat,” Schultz said. “Why should the American people not have the choice of someone who is saying, ‘I’m not embedded with either party’?” Schultz has hired two veteran political strategists to aid him with his potential run — Steve Schmidt, a onetime Republican who worked on the White House campaigns of President George W. Bush and 2008 GOP nominee John McCain, and Bill Burton, who worked for President Obama’s 2008 campaign and later served as deputy White House press secretary. (NPR, 1/28/19)

• Book Tour – Billionaire and former CEO of Starbucks, Howard Schultz, launched his book tour in New York City on Monday, but it’s his presidential ambitionsthat caused a stir at the sold out event inside a Barnes & Noble. As Schultz began to speak at the event, he was interrupted by a heckler who was escorted out by security.  Book Tour Dates and Locations

Naysayers

• Bloomberg – “Given the strong pull of partisanship and the realities of the Electoral College system, there is no way an independent can win,” Mr. Bloomberg wrote. “In 2020, the great likelihood is that an independent would just split the anti-Trump vote and end up re-electing the president. That’s a risk I refused to run in 2016 and we can’t afford to run it now.” (NYT, 1/27.19)
  • Schultz took a moment during his event to address Bloomberg’s concern, saying, “I don’t agree with his conclusion.”
• Howard Wolfson – I have seen enough data over many years to know that anyone running for POTUS as an independent will split the anti-incumbent, anti-Trump vote. The stakes couldn’t be higher. We can not afford the risk of spoiler politics that result in Trump’s re-election. (Twitter)
• Larry Saboto – Someone convinced @HowardSchultz that 40% of the electorate is “Independent”. In fact, that’s just a popular cover label for hidden partisans, who are quite loyal to their hidden party. True independents are few and far between in this highly partisan era. (Twitter)
• Julian Castro – Democratic presidential candidate Julián Castro said Sunday that should former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz run for president as an independent, he would give President Donald Trump the “best hope of getting re-elected.”
• David Axelrod – One thing you can be sure of: The consultants who sign on with the Howard Schultz campaign may help facilitate the second Trump term. But they surely will make enough to keep themselves in overpriced coffee drinks for life! (Tweet)
• Micah Cohen (editor Five-Thirty-Eight) – He may not have the votes to win outside of the two-party system, according to FiveThirtyEight Managing Editor Micah Cohen. “The problem is, most of those voters, while they like to call themselves independents, they’re not true independents,” he says. “They, year after year after year, vote for one party or the other, and so if Schultz is relying on them, I think he’s in for a rude awakening.” (ABC News, 1/29/19)
• Zac Petkanas – a former top aide to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign and to former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, used Twitter to encourage people to protest Schultz’s book-signing on Mondayevening in New York City.

Sources: Salon (1/28/19) , CNN (1/23/19)

Booker – Cory Booker is finalizing the leadership of a potential Iowa campaign team — an indication the New Jersey senator is moving closer to announcing a run for president. According to a source familiar with the process, Booker will hire, should he run, a team of high-profile Iowa staffers that includes Mike Frosolone, Haley Hager, Joe O’Hern and Tess Seger. Frosolone directed the Iowa House Democrats’ political operation, leading the recruitment of 95 Democratic candidates to run in the House’s 100 districts — the most in 30 years. Hager was the Iowa state director for NextGen America, the organization funded and created by billionaire activist Tom Steyer. She has a background in organizing and field work. O’Hern‘s resume includes work for the Iowa Democratic Party’s coordinated campaign in 2014 and as Martin O’Malley’s caucus director in the 2016 cycle. Seger has been the communications director for the Iowa Democratic Party for the last year and a half. Booker’s national campaign manager would be Addisu Demissie, who also has Iowa ties. Booker has long been expected to enter the 2020 presidential race, and on Twitter last week told his followers, “I will let you know soon” about a decision. (DesMoines Register, 1/28/19)

Bloomberg – Speaking at a Friday gathering of the Democratic Business Council of Northern Virginia, the former New York City mayor flayed the president for triggering chaos in Washington. Bloomberg vowed to make sure the president doesn’t serve another term. “The presidency is not an entry-level job,” Bloomberg said. “There is just too much at stake.” “And the longer we have a pretend CEO who is recklessly running this country, the worse it’s going to be for our economy and for our security. This is really dangerous.” He then panned Trump’s White House with a film reference, suggesting there wasn’t much separating the president from a villain. “It’s like the government version of a bad horror movie, but instead of Freddy Krueger and the ‘Nightmare on Elm Street,’ we’ve got Donald Trump and the ‘Nightmare at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.’” Following his appearance at the business council’s event, Bloomberg made a stop at the U.S. Conference of Mayors in Washington, D.C., where he echoed his previous sentiments and laid out a strong condemnation of the shutdown. (Huffington Post, 1/26/19)

Iowa

• Hickenlooper – Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper on Sunday visited Des Moines, where he met with potential Iowa caucusgoers as he considered a bid for the 2020 presidential election. Hickenlooper, who served two terms as governor, spoke to a large crowd at Court Avenue Brewing Company in downtown. It’s the site of former Raccoon River Brewing Company, a restaurant he developed in the 1990s. “I’m not screaming and yelling,” said Hickenlooper. “I’m trying to get people together. I’m trying to find solutions to the problems that are facing everybody.” (KCCI, 1/27/19)
• Harris – announced her campaign on Martin Luther King Jr. Day on ABC’s “Good Morning America”; stopped by her alma mater, Howard University; then appeared at a fundraiser for Alpha Kappa Alpha, her college sorority,at a gala Friday in South Carolina, a key early primary state. At a rally Sunday in her hometown of Oakland, she officially launched her presidential campaign by tapping those same populist themes. A crowd that rally organizers estimated at 20,000 filled the streets …where the California Democrat made her opening 2020 pitch: She will be the candidate who is both “a fighter for the people” and someone who can unite a country severed into partisan corners by saying that “we must seek truth, speak truth and fight for the truth.” The rollout was impressive for its first-day money haul — Harris’ campaign took in $1.5 million from roughly 38,000 donors within 24 hours of her announcement, roughly what Vermont independent Sen. Bernie Sanders raised in a one-day haul early in his 2016 presidential run.  On Monday, she appeared at a CNN-televised town hall in Iowa, the first caucus state. (San Francisco Chronicle, 1/28/19)

New Hampshire

• Bloomberg – During a day-long campaign-style swing through the Granite State, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg said he will decide whether to run for president by the end of February. Although his schedule in New Hampshire had all the trappings of a campaign-style swing, meeting factory employees in Nashua and taking a downtown walk in Dover, sources have told WMUR that he is truly undecided on whether to run for president and that the New Hampshire visit will be key to his decision-making process. Bloomberg, who will turn 77 on Valentine’s Day, began his day by speaking at the New Hampshire Institute of Politics as part of the institute’s “Bookmark” series. He discussed the 2017 book, “Climate of Hope,” that he co-authored with Carl Pope. The New York Times Bestseller looks at how cities, businesses and rank-and-file citizens can address climate change regardless of the political battles raging in Washington. Although the breakfast had all the trappings of a traditional “Politics and Eggs” breakfast, Bloomberg and his team preferred the book discussion format…. “Americans want elected officials to put partisanship aside and work on real problems” related to climate change, Bloomberg said. Trump, he said, “failed at business, and now he has failed at government.” (WMUR, 1/29/19)
• Gillibrand – Kirsten Gillibrand’s presidential campaign said Monday that she will make her first campaign trip to New Hampshire – the first primary state – this weekend. Gillibrand, a New York Democrat, is no stranger to New Hampshire. In fact, she’s a graduate of Dartmouth College who has loved the state ever since her college days… Gillibrand’s campaign trip will begin in Manchester on Friday and conclude two days later in the northern part of New Hampshire. The state is expected to hold its primary on Feb. 11, 2020, eight days after the Iowa caucuses kick off the race for delegates for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Sanders – Three years after fighting a surprisingly competitive Democratic primary race against Hillary Clinton, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is making another run for the White House. Two sources with direct knowledge of his plans told Yahoo News that Sanders, an independent and self-described “democratic socialist,” plans to announce his presidential bid imminently. While Sanders has been mulling a bid for months, one of the sources said he was emboldened by early polls of the race that have consistently showed him as one of the top candidates in a crowded Democratic primary field. In particular, the source said Sanders was heartened to see numbers indicating he is one of the leading candidates among African American and Latino voters, two groups he was perceived as struggling with in 2016. (Huffington Post, 1/25/19)

O’Rourke – Beto O’Rourke said Friday that it could take him months to decide whether to run for president, adding that he does not want to “raise expectations” about a 2020 bid. O’Rourke told POLITICO after a speaking engagement here that he has no timetable for making a decision, which he said could “potentially” be months away. “There are people who are smarter on this stuff and study this stuff and are following this and say you’ve got to do it this way or get in by this point or get in in this way if you were to get in,” O’Rourke said of his timing. “I think the truth is that nobody knows right now the rules on any of this stuff. I think the rules are being written in the moment.”

Bill Weld – The former Republican governor of Massachusetts, is weighing a challenge to Mr. Trump as a small-government moderate, people who have spoken with him said. Mr. Weld, 73, who was the Libertarian Party’s vice-presidential nominee in 2016, has discussed either opposing Mr. Trump in the Republican primaries or seeking the Libertarian presidential nomination. Mr. Weld declined to comment on his deliberations… (NYT, 1/26/19)

Daphne Bradford – entrepreneur, nationally recognized educator, #MeToo survivor and former EURweb columnist is a FEC (Federal Election Commission) registered 2020 presidential candidate. Daphne has spent her career fighting for high quality education, health care for all,  school/community safety, comprehensive gun control and for a woman’s right to work without being sexually harassed.  The Daphne for a Reunited America (DRA) 2020 presidential campaign will “Unite US” around these universal issues.

McAfee – United States entrepreneur and serial cryptocurrency advocate John McAfee has fled the country to conduct his 2020 presidential campaign, he said in a video statement Jan. 22.  McAfee claims he has been indicted by U.S. tax authorities and plans to run his campaign from a boat in international waters.

Out of the Running

• Flake – Former Sen. Jeff Flake announced on “CBS This Morning” on Tuesday he will not run for president in 2020 against President Trump. “I have always said that I do hope that there is a Republican who challenges the president in the primary. I still hope that somebody does, but that somebody won’t be me. I will not be a candidate,” Flake said. The former Arizona senator will join CBS News as a contributor in a new series called “Common Ground.”
• Ojeda – Former West Virginia state Sen. Richard Ojeda dropped out of the race on Jan. 25, 2019, telling supporters he didn’t want them donating money to a campaign with little chance of success.
• Chris Muphy (CT)

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